[Marketing] NPD Group Market Tracking Service (USA): Netbook Sales are Strongest among the Traditional Tech-Centric Coastal Markets

[Sean DALY]

http://www.displaysearch.com/cps/rde/xchg/displaysearch/hs.xsl/071309_mini_note_netbook_shipments_to_double_y_y_to_more_than_30m_units_in_2009.asp

DisplaySearch (part of NPD) has published a report showing astonishing
growth of netbook sales.

Bizarrely, they group Europe, the Middle East, and Africa together;
although European tech executives often cover those areas, the markets
are very different.

The writeup is contradictory; they assert that netbook sales are both
cannibalizing, and not, laptop sales. I remain convinced that
Microsoft's strategy of pushing OEMs to beef up the netbook offers
(starting with screen size) will only hurt laptop sales. The true
picture can only be understood if laptop sales are compared to
desktops; I suspect every netbook sale converts a laptop into a home
machine.

As usual, the analysts have ignored the education market, which is
suprising given Dell's claims of hundreds of school district orders
for their education netbook....

Sean



On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 7:44 PM, Sean DALY<sdaly.be at gmail.com> wrote:
> Interesting news today from Computex in Taipei re ARM netbooks
> ("smartbook"= cross between "smartphone" and "netbook"):
>
> Microsoft Won't Offer Windows for Smartbooks
> http://www.pcworld.com/article/166009/microsoft_wont_offer_windows_for_smartbooks.html
>
> With all due respect to Microsoft's OEM division head quoted, the
> first OEM who positions an ARM netbook in the education market (going
> price: half the Dell netbook) will eat Microsoft for lunch.
>
> Sean.
>
>
>
> On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 2:22 PM, Sean DALY <sdaly.be at gmail.com> wrote:
>> http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_090528.html
>>
>> Period: October 2008 - April 2009.
>> Panel: USA, 60 retailers, 17,000 stores
>>
>> NPD defines "netbook" as 10.2 inch or smaller screen.
>>
>> Of note: Boston #7 on USA national list.
>>
>> 77% of Windows sales growth in the notebook (laptop) category was due
>> to netbooks.
>>
>> My analysis: unfortunately for MS, their offer in the fastest growing
>> market segment is limited to Windows XP, asystem poorly adapted to
>> small screens. Although they have been successful in convincing OEMs
>> to push Windows over GNU/Linux and to increase netbook screen size,
>> disk, and processor specs, the tide is coming in. A popular ARM-based
>> netbook will spell real trouble for them.
>>
>> Sean
>>
>